Alex T Design: Heat

Showing posts with label Heat. Show all posts

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks Preview: Time to step it up

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Thursday, 3/29/12, 8:00 PM EST, TV: TNT
Opening Point Spread: Miami -8.5
Current Betting Line: Miami -8
Opening Total: 189
Current Total: 188.5

Dallas enters tonight’s 2011 NBA finals rematch on a two-game win streak that includes a 90-81 win over the Houston Rockets as seven-point home favorites on Tuesday night. The Mavericks will be looking to gain revenge from dropping a 105-94 decision as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Miami Heat in their season opener on Christmas Day. “A bad taste in our mouth,” commented Mavericks guard Jason Terry about that result. The franchise has still managed to win 14 of the last 15 regular-season meetings in the series. Dallas is 10-5 ATS as an underdog this year and the “under” is 8-7 in that situation.

The Mavericks are still led by the offensive play of All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 21 points versus the Rockets and leads the team in averaging 21.0 points per game. Dallas has registered a dismal 10-14 record on the road this season, but is 3-2 in that situation against Eastern Conference opponents. There’s no question that head coach Rick Carlisle is going to mention the previous meeting between these two NBA heavyweights before taking the floor tonight. “We’ve got to think back to Christmas Day because that was a miserable experience for us,” Carlisle stated earlier this week.

Miami returns home after dropping the last two games on a three-game road trip, including a 105-90 loss to the Indiana Pacers as 3.5-point favorites last time out. The Heat have gone “under” the total in five of their last six games, as the offense has sputtered. Since March 2, the team ranks 25th in the league in averaging just 93.1 points per game, which is far off from its 103.8 points it averaged before that point in time during the 2011-12 campaign. Miami is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this year.

The Heat will still have revenge on their minds from losing in the finals last year to the Mavericks despite winning the first meeting this year. Miami is 20-2 overall when playing at the AmericanAirlines Arena this year, including a spotless 5-0 mark versus Western Conference teams. Star forward LeBron James will be playing with a minor injury to his non-shooting hand, as he dislocated the ring finger on his left against the Pacers.

Bettors will likely back the Mavericks due to their 13-3-1 ATS mark in Miami, while the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Article courtesy of http://www.madduxsports.com
Image manipulation and restoration courtesy of Alex T Design

The boys have had a few bad games, probably a bad couple of weeks. Since All-Star break the team hasn't been seen to their full potential, tonight would be the perfect launch to get back where they belong, beating the defending champs. Tonight is the night!! ~ A.T.

Monday, March 26, 2012

Dwyane Wade Heated: The Silent Forth Quarter

For the first time in Dwyane Wade's career, he returned to the bench "shotless" in the fourth quarter.

Dwyane Wade didn't want to comment about the offense after losing to Oklahoma City on Sunday.

"I'd rather not talk about it," Wade told reporters.

Why? It's hard to know precisely why Wade avoided elaborating further, but there's no question that this might have something to do with it:

For the first time in Wade's career, he didn't take a shot from the floor or a free throw in the fourth quarter (minimum five minutes of playing time).

No shots, no freebies from the charity stripe, not even a turnover. Wade didn't "use" a possession all quarter with a field goal attempt, free throw attempt or a turnover, something he hasn't done in the 496 fourth quarters that qualified. Wade normally uses 30.2 percent of the Heat's possessions -- or about one every three plays -- while on the floor in the fourth quarter this season, but his usage rate was a stunning 0.0 percent on Sunday.

How could that happen?

There were a variety of factors. For starters, Wade wasn't the primary ball-handler in the fourth quarter. LeBron James dribbled the ball up the floor as the Heat's point guard down the stretch, taking on the playmaker role when the Heat were down by double-digits. If Wade had taken over point guard duties, there's little doubt that he would have at least taken a shot or two as he surveyed the defense. Wade did dribble the ball up the floor on one occasion, but tossed it to James as soon as he crossed halfcourt and James hit a mid-range jumper.

Secondly, it's not as if the Heat deliberately stonewalled their superstar. Wade passed off plenty of opportunities to score, instead letting his teammates take the shot. On multiple occasions down the stretch, you could see Wade actively pointing toward Shane Battier on the wing, a signal for James or Chris Bosh to give Battier the ball for a 3-point attempt. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't.

That doesn't mean Wade didn't want the ball. Actually, on one particularly fastbreak opportunity, as our own Brian Windhorst noted, Wade ran past James Harden on the right wing and James failed to feed him the ball. Sure, James would have had to thread the needle to complete the pass, but that hasn't stopped James before. Wade was visibly frustrated that the play wasn't made.

Credit the Thunder defense for aggressively swarming James and Wade on the ball. On the occasions that Wade did try to initiate the offense, the Thunder used their length and activity to force a pass to a weaker scorer (this is what I call the Thunder's "Operation: Anyone But Wade Or LeBron" strategy). Also, the Thunder didn't turn the ball over very often, which is the best way to keep Wade at bay.

Furthermore, the X's-and-O's often called for Wade standing on the wing, watching James initiate pick-and-rolls on the other side of the floor. This was an issue in opening months of the Big Three era and it was striking to see the loitering and passivity come again on the national stage. Erik Spoelstra has made it a point to limit his play calls and emphasize improvisational and free-flowing basketball this season. This is the downside to that laissez-faire coaching philosophy.

To be sure, the Heat will review the game film and try to correct their late-game issues from Sunday. Getting one of the most unstoppable attackers fully invested and active in the offense shouldn't be a problem, but it was against the Thunder. One game isn't enough of a sample size to call it a trend so it's probably nothing more than a statistical anomaly.

But the good thing about a condensed season is that we don't have to wait that long to test that theory; the Heat play the Pacers in just a few hours.

Image courtesy of Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images, Enhanced and manipulated by: Alex T Design
Article courtesy of Tom Haberstroh: ESPN.com

So where will the Heat have their heads tonight facing the Indiana Pacers? How much is this going to affect their game and into the playoffs? As the "preview of the finals", everyone dubbed last nights match-up, comes to a close, you have to stop and think...Is the Heat worthy of an NBA championship, or is this OKC's time to shine...you decide, and I'll see you in the playoffs. ~ A.T.